A dated public record of big money and technology promises, and what actually happened to them. We write down the promise, we wait, we check the receipt.
What this is. Everyone covers the promise. Almost no one comes back to check whether it was kept. This record does only that: it writes down a specific, dated, checkable promise, waits, and then grades it against what the official record shows actually happened. Every fact links to a primary source you can open yourself.
We grade the promise, never the person. The question is never "is someone a scammer." It is only "did the stated thing happen, on the stated terms, by the stated time." That is why the same rubric grades a trillion-dollar company and a collapsed crypto lender, and why a kept promise gets a PAID as readily as a broken one gets a miss.
How we grade
The full method is public: see How We Grade for exactly what qualifies as a promise, how each verdict is defined, and the sourcing standard. In short:
PaidPartialDid not payToo earlyWithdrawn
Paid: the stated thing happened on the stated terms. Partial: something happened, but materially less, later, or on changed terms. Did not pay: the record shows it did not happen and will not. Too early: the clock is still running, and we commit to a public re-check date. Withdrawn: the promiser formally retracted it before the deadline. The verdict grades the claim, not any person. Every graded party may submit primary documentation and we will correct the entry.
The record
Institutional forecastToo early
Tokenization will reach $16 trillion by 2030
The promise
A 2022 report by Boston Consulting Group and the exchange ADDX projected that the tokenization of global illiquid assets could become a roughly $16 trillion business by 2030.
Source: BCG and ADDX, "Relevance of on-chain asset tokenization in crypto winter" (2022).
The receipt so far
As of 2026, independent trackers of on-chain tokenized real-world assets (excluding stablecoins) measure the total in the tens of billions of dollars, a small fraction of the forecast. The clock runs to 2030, so this is logged, not yet judged.
Source: industry tracker rwa.xyz (re-verify the current measured figure on each check date).
Next check: annually through 2030.
AI announced vs shippedDid not pay (announced timeline)
Apple's more personalized Siri
The promise
At its developer conference in June 2024, Apple announced a more personalized Siri with on-screen awareness and personal-context features as part of Apple Intelligence, presented as coming in the following year.
Source: Apple WWDC 2024 announcement.
The receipt
On March 7, 2025, Apple publicly stated the personalized Siri features would take longer to deliver than planned and delayed them, widely reported as pushed to 2026. The announced timeline was not met.
Source: Apple statement, March 7, 2025, as reported by CNBC and TechCrunch.
Next check: on release of the delayed features.
AI announced vs shippedDid not pay
The Humane AI Pin as a standalone AI device
The promise
Humane launched and sold the AI Pin in 2024 as a standalone, cloud-connected AI wearable, positioned as a new kind of personal device.
Source: Humane product launch materials, 2024.
The receipt
In February 2025, HP acquired Humane's assets for about $116 million, the AI Pin was discontinued, and existing devices lost their core cloud functionality, reported as being effectively disabled.
General Motors invested billions of dollars in its Cruise unit toward a driverless robotaxi business it publicly described as a major future revenue opportunity.
Source: GM public statements on Cruise.
The receipt
On December 10, 2024, GM announced it would stop funding Cruise's robotaxi development and refocus the technology on personal vehicles, effectively ending the robotaxi effort.
Source: GM's own announcement, December 10, 2024 (news.gm.com).
Stablecoin redemptionPaid
USDC redeemable one-to-one for dollars
The promise
The USDC stablecoin is represented as redeemable one-to-one for US dollars, backed by reserves.
Source: Circle's public representations for USDC.
The receipt
During the March 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank, USDC briefly fell to about $0.87 on March 11, 2023 after Circle disclosed reserve exposure to the bank. It regained its dollar peg by March 13, 2023 once SVB depositors were backstopped and reserves were confirmed accessible. Holders who did not sell into the panic were made whole. The episode is graded PAID on redemption, with the honest note that it did briefly depeg and exposed real reserve-bank risk.
Celsius Network advertised high yields on customer crypto deposits and publicly reassured customers about the safety and availability of their funds.
Source: Celsius public marketing and statements.
The receipt
Celsius froze customer withdrawals on June 12, 2022 and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 13, 2022. On May 8, 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that founder Alexander Mashinsky had been sentenced to 12 years in prison for fraud and market manipulation and ordered to forfeit about $48 million. These outcomes are stated as reported by the court and the Department of Justice.
Source: U.S. Department of Justice, SDNY, May 8, 2025 (justice.gov); Celsius bankruptcy docket.
Deposit insurance claimDid not pay
Voyager: customer deposits "FDIC insured"
The promise
Voyager Digital marketed to customers that their deposits were protected by FDIC insurance.
Source: Voyager marketing materials.
The receipt
On July 28, 2022, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve issued a joint letter demanding Voyager cease and desist from making false or misleading representations about deposit insurance. Voyager filed for bankruptcy in July 2022, and in October 2023 the FTC announced a settlement over the false FDIC-insurance claims. Characterizations here are those of the regulators.
Source: FDIC and Federal Reserve joint letter, July 28, 2022 (fdic.gov); FTC, October 2023.
The rules we hold ourselves to
Why you can trust the record
No money from the rated, ever. No payment, sponsorship, advertising, or affiliate relationship from any company that appears here, past or future. Our income comes only from readers and members, never from anyone we grade.
We grade the promise, not the person. We do not call anyone a scammer or a criminal in our own voice. Where a court or regulator has made a finding, we report that finding and attribute it to them.
Dated facts and primary sources only. Every receipt links to a document you can open: a regulator filing, a court docket, an official price history, or the promiser's own words. We quote, we cite, we let you conclude.
We commit to check dates. A Too Early verdict names a date we will come back and re-grade, whatever the outcome. Writing the promise down before the outcome is known is the whole point.
Right of response and public corrections. Any graded party may submit primary documentation and we will update the entry. When we get something wrong, we correct it in the open, dated, and leave the record of the fix.
Educational record only, not investment, financial, or legal advice, and not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Verdicts grade specific dated claims against the public record and are not statements about the character or intent of any person or company. Figures and outcomes are dated to their sources and may be revised; verify against the linked primary records. We hold no position in, and take no compensation from, anything named here.