Did It Actually Ship?

Microsoft pulled Recall from the June 18 launch on June 7, 2024 after security researchers showed the activity database was easily accessible, then re-released it to the general public on April 25, 2025 with encryption, opt-in, and Windows Hello gating. The feature did ship. Graded Shipped, with the honest note that it missed its committed date by roughly ten months.

On February 18, 2025, HP acquired Humane's assets for about $116 million and the AI Pin was discontinued. On February 28, 2025, the devices were cut off from Humane's servers and lost calling, messaging, and AI functions. Less than a year after shipping, the promised standalone device no longer works.

On March 7, 2025, Apple said the features would take longer than expected. At its June 9, 2025 conference it repeated that the work needed more time. On June 8, 2026, Apple re-announced the feature as Siri AI with general release scheduled for fall 2026. As of this writing it has not reached general users, roughly two years after the original announcement.

The device shipped on those terms and stayed in market, and on July 22, 2025, Amazon announced it was acquiring Bee, with development continuing under Amazon into 2026. The promised device reached buyers at the promised price. Graded Shipped, the counterexample to Humane in the same category.

At its April 2024 launch the R1 supported only four services, Spotify, Uber, DoorDash, and Midjourney, not arbitrary apps. A web-based agent arrived later in 2024 as an admittedly experimental tool, and the company kept iterating into 2026. Materially less than promised, and later, though the product exists. Graded Partial.

Within a day, Google acknowledged the video was built from still image frames and text prompts with latency edited out, and that the real-time spoken interaction shown did not occur as depicted. Graded Did not ship as depicted. This grades the demo video, not the underlying model.

Early access began in waves from late March 2025 and passed one million users by June 23, 2025, but as of mid-2026 it remained in gated early access on select devices with an incomplete feature set. It shipped to real users near the promised window, and it is not yet the full public product that was announced. Graded Partial.

The demonstration drive was never performed, in 2017 or since. As of mid-2026, no Tesla has completed the promised coast-to-coast autonomous demo under the terms described, and Tesla's Full Self-Driving in owner cars remains a supervised driver-assist system. Graded Did not ship.

Tesla launched a small Austin robotaxi pilot in June 2025, but with a Tesla safety monitor in the front seat, not empty, and received a Texas ride-hailing permit on August 8, 2025. By February 2026, independent tracking put it at roughly 42 vehicles at limited availability, still with safety monitors, operating only in Austin and the Bay Area. A supervised pilot shipped near the date. The dated scaling and driverless promises did not. Graded Partial.

The clock is still running. As of mid-2026, the service operated in a small number of metros with limited fleets and human safety monitors. This is logged now, before the outcome is known, which is the whole point of the record. It will be graded on its date whatever the result.

After an October 2023 incident in San Francisco and a California DMV suspension of its driverless permits, GM announced on December 10, 2024, that it would stop funding Cruise's robotaxi development and wind the business down, abandoning the target a year before its date. The safety findings are the regulator's. Graded Withdrawn.

Operator shipped as a research preview, then OpenAI folded its capability into ChatGPT and shut down the standalone Operator on August 31, 2025, about seven months later. The function continues inside ChatGPT, but the named product was retired. Graded Withdrawn.

The benchmark figure Cognition cited was a genuine result, but independent analysis in 2024, and a study reported in January 2025 that found Devin completed 3 of 20 real tasks, showed the autonomy was overstated. The company itself succeeded commercially, acquiring Windsurf in July 2025 and raising at a large valuation in 2026. A real product shipped, the fully autonomous framing did not hold. Graded Partial.

On January 14, 2025, the SEC issued a settled cease-and-desist order finding that Presto made materially false or misleading statements, that early units relied on a third party's speech technology, and that the vast majority of drive-thru orders required human intervention. The findings are the SEC's, and Presto settled without admitting or denying them. Graded Did not ship.

As part of Operation AI Comply, announced on September 25, 2024, the FTC charged that DoNotPay could not substantiate the claims and employed no attorneys, and the matter settled with a $193,000 payment and a requirement to warn users of the service's limits. The characterization is the FTC's. Graded Did not ship.

Reporting in 2025 described apps built largely by human engineers, and after a lender seized cash reserves the company filed for insolvency on May 20, 2025. US federal prosecutors subsequently subpoenaed records. The company collapsed. The revenue and deception characterizations are those of the reporters and investigators. Graded Did not ship.

Neither window delivered. The US radiologist workforce grew about 17 percent from 2014 to 2023, and by 2025 and 2026 the field reported record demand and compensation, ranking among the highest-paid medical specialties. The dated prediction did not happen. Graded Did not ship. AI is now a real tool inside radiology, which is a different claim than replacing the radiologist.

Both windows, roughly September 2025 and March 2026, have passed. No industry data shows AI authoring 90 percent of code, and independent reviews a year later found the economy-wide claim unmet, with AI assisting a meaningful but far smaller share. Graded Did not ship. AI coding assistance is real and growing, which is a different claim than 90 percent of all code.

Through mid-2026, Meta had not replaced its mid-level engineers with AI. The role persisted and Meta continued to employ and hire engineers. Graded Did not ship, on the stated 2025 timeline.

OpenAI shipped agent products in 2025 and enterprises began deploying them, so agents did enter workplaces. But no AGI was declared, and evidence that agents materially changed company output at scale is thin. A real capability shipped, the larger half of the claim is unproven. Graded Partial.

In May 2025, the CEO reversed course, telling Bloomberg the cost cutting had gone too far, that service quality dropped, and that Klarna had begun rehiring human agents. The company walked back its own claim. Graded Withdrawn.

After public and user backlash, von Ahn walked it back in August 2025, saying the memo did not give enough context and that no full-time employees were laid off, and by April 2026 he also backed off requiring employees to be scored on AI use. Graded Withdrawn.

On April 8, 2025, LMArena said Meta had submitted a customized model tuned for human preference, not the public release, and that this did not match what it expects from model providers. When the unmodified released model was tested, it ranked around number 32. The touted ranking was withdrawn in effect. Graded Withdrawn.

Within two weeks the feature produced viral false answers, including advising users to put glue on pizza and to eat a rock a day, and Google restricted it while acknowledging errors on May 30, 2024. The feature shipped broadly, the implied reliability did not hold. Graded Partial.

OpenAI released Sora, as Sora Turbo, to the public for ChatGPT Plus and Pro users on December 9, 2024, inside the calendar year. The promised public release arrived. Graded Shipped.

The server launched the same day, and after criticism that the code and weights were withheld, DeepMind released the AlphaFold 3 model code and weights for academic use in November 2024. The promised access was delivered. Graded Shipped, the science-side counterexample that shows the referee is not one-note.

Salesforce shipped and scaled Agentforce, reporting thousands of customers and about one billion dollars in related revenue in 2025, but it never verifiably confirmed the one billion agents figure, and analysts flagged adoption lagging the claim. A real product shipped, the specific number did not. Graded Partial.

On March 18, 2024, the SEC charged and settled with both firms for false or misleading statements about their use of AI, its first AI-washing enforcement actions, with combined penalties of 400,000 dollars. The findings are the SEC's, settled without admitting or denying. Graded Did not ship.

At Davos in January 2026, the target was revised to the end of 2026, and as of mid-2026 no trial had been dosed, though the company raised 2.1 billion dollars in May 2026 to reach the clinic. The end-2025 deadline passed without a trial. Graded Did not ship, against that deadline.